Osasuna
Getafe
The model leans Osasuna at 37%. Expected goals: Osasuna 1.01, Getafe 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%. Osasuna won 4 of their last 6; Getafe won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Osasuna | 38% | 2.60 | 2.20 | 43% | −5 |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.84 | 2.90 | 33% | +3 |
| 2Getafe | 26% | 3.80 | 3.90 | 24% | +2 |
Pick: Osasuna. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.7%
- 0–016.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–113.1%
- 2–08.4%
- 2–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Osasuna 0| Osasuna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 24% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 33% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.