Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Tenerife
1–2
Lost
Getafe
The model leans Draw at 38%. Expected goals: Tenerife 0.83, Getafe 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 75%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match39
40
21
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tenerife | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Getafe | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 84% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% |
| Both teams to score | Yes24% | No76% |
Most likely scores
- 0–025.3%
- 1–021.1%
- 0–113.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–14.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tenerife 0| Tenerife line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 26% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 17% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.