Deportivo Alaves
Getafe
The model leans Deportivo Alaves at 36%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alaves 1.00, Getafe 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%. Deportivo Alaves won 2 of their last 3; Getafe won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo Alaves | 37% | 2.67 | 2.38 | 40% | −2 |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.84 | 2.75 | 35% | +1 |
| 2Getafe | 27% | 3.67 | 3.70 | 26% | +2 |
Pick: Deportivo Alaves. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.00 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–016.4%
- 1–016.4%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 2–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Alaves 0| Deportivo Alaves line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 24% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 33% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 19% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.