Monaco
Getafe
The model leans Monaco at 43%. Expected goals: Monaco 1.34, Getafe 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Monaco won 4 of their last 6; Getafe won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monaco | 47% | 2.15 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Getafe | 23% | 4.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Monaco. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monaco −0.5| Monaco line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.