Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Coventry City

20
Won

Monaco

The model leans Coventry City at 40%. Expected goals: Coventry City 1.80, Monaco 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Coventry City won 3 of their last 5; Monaco won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Coventry City43%2.33
XDraw25%4.06
2Monaco32%3.09

Pick: Coventry City. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.54
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.565%35%
3.543%57%
Both teams to scoreYes66%No34%

Most likely scores

  • 119.8%
  • 218.8%
  • 127.6%
  • 226.8%
  • 106.4%
  • 205.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Coventry City 0
Coventry City lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%20%56%
-0.544%56%
044%23%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%17%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.