Monaco
Marseille
The model leans Monaco at 40%. Expected goals: Monaco 1.93, Marseille 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. Monaco won 4 of their last 6; Marseille won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monaco | 43% | 2.30 | 2.15 | 44% | 0 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.26 | 3.55 | 26% | −3 |
| 2Marseille | 33% | 3.02 | 3.10 | 30% | +3 |
Pick: Monaco. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.93 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.5%
- 1–05.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monaco 0| Monaco line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 20% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 17% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.