Marseille
Atletico Madrid
The model leans Atletico Madrid at 40%. Expected goals: Marseille 1.51, Atletico Madrid 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Marseille won 2 of their last 5; Atletico Madrid won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico Madrid | 43% | 2.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico Madrid. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
- 0–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Marseille 0| Marseille line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 18% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.