Marseille
Strasbourg
The model leans Marseille at 46%. Expected goals: Marseille 1.91, Strasbourg 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. Marseille won 2 of their last 5; Strasbourg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 49% | 2.06 | 1.70 | 55% | −7 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.14 | 3.95 | 24% | 0 |
| 2Strasbourg | 27% | 3.67 | 4.45 | 21% | +6 |
Pick: Marseille. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.91 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.0%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Marseille −0.5| Marseille line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.