Newcastle United
Strasbourg
The model leans Newcastle United at 53%. Expected goals: Newcastle United 2.29, Strasbourg 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 65%. Newcastle United won 2 of their last 6; Strasbourg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newcastle United | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Strasbourg | 19% | 5.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: Newcastle United. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.29 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Newcastle United −1| Newcastle United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.