Newcastle United
Bayer Leverkusen
The model leans Newcastle United at 45%. Expected goals: Newcastle United 1.89, Bayer Leverkusen 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. Newcastle United won 2 of their last 6; Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newcastle United | 48% | 2.09 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Newcastle United. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.89 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.0%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Newcastle United −0.5| Newcastle United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 21% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.