Everton
Newcastle United
The model leans Everton at 36%. Expected goals: Everton 1.49, Newcastle United 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Everton won 3 of their last 6; Newcastle United won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Everton | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Newcastle United | 36% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Everton. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Everton 0| Everton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 20% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 25% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 19% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.