VfB Stuttgart
Everton
The model leans VfB Stuttgart at 40%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.63, Everton 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. VfB Stuttgart won 2 of their last 5; Everton won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfB Stuttgart | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Everton | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: VfB Stuttgart. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–16.9%
- 2–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: VfB Stuttgart −0.5| VfB Stuttgart line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.