Everton
Lille
The model leans Everton at 39%. Expected goals: Everton 1.23, Lille 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Everton won 3 of their last 6; Lille won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Everton | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Lille | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Everton. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–18.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 57% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Everton −0.5| Everton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.