Lille
RAAL La Louviere
The model leans Lille at 53%. Expected goals: Lille 1.63, RAAL La Louviere 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. Lille won 4 of their last 6; RAAL La Louviere won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lille | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| 2RAAL La Louviere | 13% | 7.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lille. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 0.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.0%
- 2–013.9%
- 1–110.7%
- 0–010.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lille −1| Lille line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 11% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.