Union St.Gilloise
Lille
The model leans Union St.Gilloise at 38%. Expected goals: Union St.Gilloise 1.08, Lille 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 63%. Union St.Gilloise won 3 of their last 6; Lille won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union St.Gilloise | 41% | 2.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Lille | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union St.Gilloise. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.7%
- 0–015.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union St.Gilloise −0.5| Union St.Gilloise line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.