Toulouse
Lille
The model leans Lille at 39%. Expected goals: Toulouse 0.96, Lille 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Toulouse won 1 of their last 5; Lille won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toulouse | 27% | 3.70 | 3.45 | 28% | 0 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | 3.60 | 26% | +5 |
| 2Lille | 42% | 2.39 | 2.05 | 46% | −4 |
Pick: Lille. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.96 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–28.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lille −0.5| Toulouse line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.