Toulouse
Lyon
The model leans Lyon at 41%. Expected goals: Toulouse 1.12, Lyon 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Toulouse won 1 of their last 5; Lyon won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bwin_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toulouse | 27% | 3.70 | 2.35 | 40% | −12 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | 3.25 | 28% | 0 |
| 2Lyon | 45% | 2.23 | 2.90 | 32% | +13 |
Pick: Lyon. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lyon −0.5| Toulouse line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.