Lyon
St. Gallen
The model leans Lyon at 50%. Expected goals: Lyon 1.77, St. Gallen 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Lyon won 3 of their last 6; St. Gallen won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lyon | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2St. Gallen | 20% | 5.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lyon. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.3%
- 0–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lyon −0.5| Lyon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 24% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.