St. Gallen
Luzern
The model leans St. Gallen at 52%. Expected goals: St. Gallen 2.31, Luzern 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 67%. St. Gallen won 1 of their last 6; Luzern won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Gallen | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Luzern | 20% | 4.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Gallen. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.31 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–26.2%
- 1–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Gallen −1| St. Gallen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 22% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.