Luzern
Lausanne
The model leans Luzern at 54%. Expected goals: Luzern 2.43, Lausanne 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%. Luzern won 2 of their last 6; Lausanne won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luzern | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.01 | – | – | – |
| 2Lausanne | 18% | 5.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Luzern. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.43 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–06.0%
- 3–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Luzern −1| Luzern line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 21% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 11% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.