Servette
Luzern
The model leans Servette at 45%. Expected goals: Servette 2.31, Luzern 1.84. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 76%. Servette won 1 of their last 6; Luzern won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Servette | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Luzern | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Servette. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.31 – 1.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.7%
- 1–26.2%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–25.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Servette −0.5| Servette line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 19% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 15% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.