Lyon
Servette
The model leans Lyon at 61%. Expected goals: Lyon 2.48, Servette 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%. Lyon won 3 of their last 6; Servette won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lyon | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Servette | 12% | 8.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lyon. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.48 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lyon −1.5| Lyon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.