Lyon
Le Havre
The model leans Lyon at 53%. Expected goals: Lyon 1.61, Le Havre 0.66. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Lyon won 3 of their last 6; Le Havre won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lyon | 59% | 1.68 | 1.40 | 66% | −7 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | 4.40 | 21% | +6 |
| 2Le Havre | 14% | 7.23 | 7.20 | 13% | +1 |
Pick: Lyon. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 0.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.7%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lyon −1| Lyon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 27% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 25% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.