Le Havre
Monaco
The model leans Monaco at 43%. Expected goals: Le Havre 1.04, Monaco 1.51. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Le Havre won 0 of their last 4; Monaco won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Le Havre | 25% | 4.01 | 3.60 | 26% | −1 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | 3.55 | 26% | +2 |
| 2Monaco | 47% | 2.14 | 1.95 | 48% | −1 |
Pick: Monaco. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.51| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monaco −0.5| Le Havre line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.