Sporting CP
Monaco
The model leans Sporting CP at 56%. Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.45, Monaco 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 64%. Sporting CP won 3 of their last 3; Monaco won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Monaco | 16% | 6.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sporting CP. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.45 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–06.6%
- 3–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP −1| Sporting CP line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 22% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.