Sporting CP
Celtic
The model leans Sporting CP at 51%. Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.15, Celtic 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 63%. Sporting CP won 3 of their last 3; Celtic won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Celtic | 20% | 4.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sporting CP. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.15 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP −1| Sporting CP line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 22% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.