Kilmarnock
Celtic
The model leans Celtic at 54%. Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.33, Celtic 2.47. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 68%. Kilmarnock won 1 of their last 6; Celtic won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kilmarnock | 19% | 5.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Celtic | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Celtic. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 2.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.1%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–17.4%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–26.0%
- 0–35.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celtic −1| Kilmarnock line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 11% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 18% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 21% | 41% |
| +1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.