Peterhead
Kilmarnock
The model leans Kilmarnock at 51%. Expected goals: Peterhead 1.35, Kilmarnock 2.30. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%. Peterhead won 4 of their last 6; Kilmarnock won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Peterhead | 21% | 4.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Kilmarnock | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kilmarnock. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 2.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–26.3%
- 0–16.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kilmarnock −1| Peterhead line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 13% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 20% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 22% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.