Celtic
Dundee FC
The model leans Celtic at 63%. Expected goals: Celtic 2.58, Dundee FC 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 57%. Celtic won 5 of their last 6; Dundee FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Dundee FC | 11% | 9.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Celtic. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.58 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celtic −1.5| Celtic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.