Predictions · League Cup · outside model coverage

Dundee United

04
Won

Celtic

The model leans Celtic at 52%. Expected goals: Dundee United 1.14, Celtic 2.12. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. Dundee United won 1 of their last 6; Celtic won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Dundee United19%5.31
XDraw22%4.48
2Celtic59%1.70

Pick: Celtic. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.14 – 2.12
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes60%No40%

Most likely scores

  • 129.8%
  • 119.3%
  • 028.6%
  • 018.1%
  • 137.0%
  • 036.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Celtic −1
Dundee United lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.57%93%
-17%12%80%
-0.520%80%
020%20%60%
+0.540%60%
+140%23%37%
+1.563%37%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.