Heart of Midlothian
Dundee United
The model leans Heart of Midlothian at 61%. Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 2.15, Dundee United 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 6; Dundee United won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Heart of Midlothian | 70% | 1.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Dundee United | 10% | 10.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Heart of Midlothian. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.15 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.4%
- 1–012.4%
- 3–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Heart of Midlothian −1.5| Heart of Midlothian line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 24% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.