Celtic
Falkirk
The model leans Celtic at 60%. Expected goals: Celtic 2.54, Falkirk 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%. Celtic won 5 of their last 6; Falkirk won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Falkirk | 15% | 6.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Celtic. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.54 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–06.8%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celtic −1.5| Celtic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 21% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 17% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.