Falkirk
Ayr United
The model leans Falkirk at 46%. Expected goals: Falkirk 1.78, Ayr United 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Falkirk won 1 of their last 6; Ayr United won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Falkirk | 49% | 2.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Ayr United | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Falkirk. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.8%
- 0–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Falkirk −0.5| Falkirk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 22% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.