Dunfermline Athletic
Ayr United
The model leans Dunfermline Athletic at 50%. Expected goals: Dunfermline Athletic 1.80, Ayr United 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Dunfermline Athletic won 2 of their last 6; Ayr United won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dunfermline Athletic | 54% | 1.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Ayr United | 20% | 4.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dunfermline Athletic. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–16.1%
- 0–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dunfermline Athletic −0.5| Dunfermline Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.