FC Zürich
Servette
The model leans Servette at 50%. Expected goals: FC Zürich 1.32, Servette 2.00. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%. FC Zürich won 2 of their last 6; Servette won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Zürich | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.24 | – | – | – |
| 2Servette | 52% | 1.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Servette. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 2.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.2%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Servette −0.5| FC Zürich line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.