Servette
Basel
The model leans Servette at 50%. Expected goals: Servette 2.17, Basel 1.46. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%. Servette won 1 of their last 6; Basel won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Servette | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Basel | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: Servette. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.17 – 1.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–06.2%
- 1–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Servette −0.5| Servette line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 21% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 14% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.