Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Basel
2–5
Won
Barcelona
The model leans Barcelona at 70%. Expected goals: Basel 0.87, Barcelona 3.47. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match85
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Basel | 5% | 19.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 10% | 9.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Barcelona | 85% | 1.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barcelona. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 85%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 3.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 63% | 37% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 0–39.2%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–48.0%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–46.9%
- 1–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona −2| Basel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 4% | 94% |
| -0.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| 0 | 6% | 10% | 85% |
| +0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| +1 | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| +1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.