Basel
Thun
The model leans Thun at 42%. Expected goals: Basel 1.69, Thun 2.02. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. Basel won 3 of their last 6; Thun won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Basel | 32% | 3.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Thun | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thun. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 2.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.7%
- 0–25.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Thun −0.5| Basel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 17% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.