Thun
Lausanne
The model leans Thun at 60%. Expected goals: Thun 2.56, Lausanne 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%. Thun won 2 of their last 6; Lausanne won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Thun | 68% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Lausanne | 13% | 7.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thun. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.56 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–17.9%
- 3–07.3%
- 1–17.3%
- 1–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Thun −1.5| Thun line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 21% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.