Luzern
Thun
The model leans Thun at 37%. Expected goals: Luzern 2.13, Thun 2.15. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 78%. Luzern won 2 of their last 6; Thun won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luzern | 39% | 2.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Thun | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thun. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.13 – 2.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.3%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–35.2%
- 3–25.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Luzern 0| Luzern line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 17% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 18% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.