Thun
Young Boys
The model leans Thun at 50%. Expected goals: Thun 2.59, Young Boys 1.92. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 79%. Thun won 2 of their last 6; Young Boys won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Thun | 52% | 1.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Young Boys | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thun. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.59 – 1.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 66% | 34% |
| Both teams to score | Yes79% | No21% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.1%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.5%
- 1–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Thun −0.5| Thun line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 19% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 19% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 14% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.