Young Boys
Basel
The model leans Young Boys at 51%. Expected goals: Young Boys 2.58, Basel 1.60. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 74%. Young Boys won 4 of their last 6; Basel won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Young Boys | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Basel | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Young Boys. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.58 – 1.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–16.3%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–05.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Young Boys −1| Young Boys line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 20% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 18% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 12% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.