Young Boys
FC Vaduz
The model leans Young Boys at 50%. Expected goals: Young Boys 2.43, FC Vaduz 1.70. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 75%. Young Boys won 4 of their last 6; FC Vaduz won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Young Boys | 53% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.87 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Vaduz | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Young Boys. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.43 – 1.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.6%
- 3–25.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Young Boys −0.5| Young Boys line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 20% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 19% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 14% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.