Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage
Atletic Escaldes
0–2
Won
FC Vaduz
The model leans FC Vaduz at 68%. Expected goals: Atletic Escaldes 0.86, FC Vaduz 2.91. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match14
78
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletic Escaldes | 8% | 13.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.13 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Vaduz | 78% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Vaduz. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.86 – 2.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 0–29.8%
- 0–39.5%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–46.9%
- 0–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Vaduz −2| Atletic Escaldes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 6% | 92% |
| -0.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| 0 | 8% | 13% | 79% |
| +0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| +1 | 21% | 20% | 59% |
| +1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.