Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage
FC Vaduz
4–0
Won
Atletic Escaldes
The model leans FC Vaduz at 73%. Expected goals: FC Vaduz 3.55, Atletic Escaldes 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match88
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Vaduz | 88% | 1.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 9% | 11.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletic Escaldes | 3% | 28.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Vaduz. Calibrated probability 73% (raw model output 88%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 97%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.55 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 3–010.7%
- 4–09.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 3–17.5%
- 5–06.7%
- 4–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Vaduz −2| FC Vaduz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| -1 | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| -0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| 0 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +0.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
| +1 | 96% | 3% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.