Luzern
FC Vaduz
The model leans Luzern at 46%. Expected goals: Luzern 2.21, FC Vaduz 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. Luzern won 2 of their last 6; FC Vaduz won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luzern | 49% | 2.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.57 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Vaduz | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Luzern. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.21 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–16.1%
- 3–25.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Luzern −0.5| Luzern line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 20% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 20% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 15% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.