Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
FC Courtételle
1–6
Won
Basel
The model leans Basel at 68%. Expected goals: FC Courtételle 0.99, Basel 3.03. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match77
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Courtételle | 9% | 11.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Basel | 77% | 1.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Basel. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 3.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 0–38.3%
- 1–38.3%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–46.3%
- 1–46.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 63% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Basel −2| FC Courtételle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 6% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 13% | 78% |
| +0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| +1 | 22% | 19% | 59% |
| +1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.