Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Birmingham City
2–2
Lost
Barcelona
The model leans Barcelona at 67%. Expected goals: Birmingham City 0.75, Barcelona 2.61. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match16
77
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Birmingham City | 8% | 13.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Barcelona | 77% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barcelona. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.75 – 2.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.9%
- 0–310.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona −2| Birmingham City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 6% | 92% |
| -0.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| 0 | 8% | 14% | 77% |
| +0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| +1 | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| +1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.