Birmingham City
Bristol City
The model leans Birmingham City at 39%. Expected goals: Birmingham City 1.28, Bristol City 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Birmingham City won 1 of their last 4; Bristol City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Birmingham City | 42% | 2.40 | 1.68 | 55% | −13 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.25 | 3.75 | 25% | +6 |
| 2Bristol City | 27% | 3.64 | 4.50 | 21% | +7 |
Pick: Birmingham City. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–08.4%
- 2–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Birmingham City −0.5| Birmingham City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.