Bristol City
Millwall
The model leans Millwall at 37%. Expected goals: Bristol City 1.10, Millwall 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Bristol City won 2 of their last 6; Millwall won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bristol City | 31% | 3.25 | 2.50 | 37% | −7 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.28 | 3.40 | 27% | +3 |
| 2Millwall | 39% | 2.58 | 2.65 | 35% | +4 |
Pick: Millwall. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bristol City 0| Bristol City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.